Since 2016, the coaches' final No. 1 has won the Ohio state title 41 times in 56 tries. When it loses, the team to fear usually isn't No. 2. It's No. 3.
Woodridge, the only unanimous No. 1 in this week's poll, leaves the line in the Division III boys race at the Boardman regional on Oct. 31. Photo: Christian Lisle (@lislephotog)
Every fall, the week of the state meet, the Ohio Association of Track and Cross Country Coaches (OATCCC) puts out one last poll. Twelve coaches vote in every division. It is the sport's final word before the gun goes off at Fortress Obetz.
We went back through every pre-state poll in the OATCCC archive, 2016 through 2025, and checked each No. 1 against the team that actually won state. The archive has no 2018 polls, so that leaves nine seasons and 56 races.
The No. 1 team won 41 of them, 73 percent. That is good, but it is not safe. About one race in four, the favorite goes home without the trophy. In 2023 it happened five times in one afternoon.
The 2026 pre-state poll came out today, Nov. 5. Here is what a decade of history says about every No. 1 on it.
The record: 41 of 56
Each block is one state race since 2016: green when the pre-state No. 1 won, gray when it lost. The OATCCC archive has no 2018 polls. Sources: OATCCC polls; OHSAA state meet results (2016-2024) and MileSplit (2025).
The misses don't spread out evenly. Seven of the nine seasons had two misses or fewer, and 2022 and 2024 were perfect. Then there are 2020, when No. 1 went 2 for 6, and 2023, when it went 1 for 6. Those two seasons hold 9 of the 15 misses.
Girls No. 1s have been safer than boys No. 1s, and the smaller the school, the safer the pick.
| Group | No. 1 won | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Girls | 22 of 28 | 79% |
| Boys | 19 of 28 | 68% |
| Division I | 12 of 18 | 67% |
| Division II | 13 of 18 | 72% |
| Division III | 14 of 18 | 78% |
| Division IV (2025 only) | 2 of 2 | 100% |
One race has never missed. The Division III girls No. 1 is 9 for 9: Minster seven times, West Liberty-Salem in 2020 and Oakwood in 2025.
Oakwood sophomore Evelyn Reinoehl won the Division III girls race at the Troy regional in 18:36 on Oct. 31. Oakwood, last year's champion, is No. 2 this week. Photo: Lauren Palmer (@laurenpmedia)
Every No. 1, every finish and every champion since 2016 is in the full table at the bottom of this story: Every race, 2016-2025.
The upsets: 15 times No. 1 lost
Ten of the 15 champions who beat a No. 1 were ranked No. 3. Seven of them didn't get a single first-place vote.
| Year | Race | Pre-state No. 1 (first-place votes) | No. 1 finished | Champion (poll rank) | Winning score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | D2 girls | Hathaway Brown (8 of 12) | 2nd, 161 | Watterson (No. 2) | 158 |
| 2025 | D1 boys | Mason (11) | 3rd, 153 | Beavercreek (No. 3) | 107 |
| 2023 | D3 boys | Mount Gilead (12, unanimous) | 2nd, 128 | Columbus Grove (No. 3) | 122 |
| 2023 | D2 girls | Woodridge (7) | 2nd, 157 | Minerva (No. 3) | 144 |
| 2023 | D2 boys | Woodridge (9) | 2nd, 123 | Marlington (No. 3) | 108 |
| 2023 | D1 girls | Hilliard Davidson (10) | 2nd, 124 | Perrysburg (No. 3) | 102 |
| 2023 | D1 boys | Mason (10) | 2nd, 148 | Massillon Jackson (No. 3) | 86 |
| 2021 | D1 girls | Loveland (12, unanimous) | 2nd, 109 | Perrysburg (No. 3) | 101 |
| 2020 | D3 boys | Cedarville (9) | 7th, 216 | East Canton (No. 3) | 126 |
| 2020 | D2 boys | Unioto (10) | 3rd, 149 | Woodridge (No. 3) | 113 |
| 2020 | D1 girls | Hilliard Davidson (10) | 2nd, 138 | Centerville (No. 2) | 128 |
| 2020 | D1 boys | St. Xavier (12, unanimous) | 2nd, 75 | Lakota West (No. 2) | 73 |
| 2019 | D3 boys | Mount Gilead (7) | 2nd, 112 | Summit Country Day (No. 5) | 98 |
| 2017 | D2 girls | Hawken (6) | 5th, 197 | Lexington (No. 2) | 137 |
| 2016 | D3 boys | Maplewood (10) | 3rd, 125 | Fort Loramie (No. 3) | 97 |
2023: five in one afternoon. Every No. 1 lost except the Minster girls. All five losses went to the No. 3 team, and all five No. 1s finished 2nd. Four of the five champions had zero first-place votes. Massillon Jackson had two, then beat Mason by 62 points.
Mason's Logan Mix at the Troy regional on Oct. 31. Mason was the pre-state No. 1 five straight years, won three titles and lost twice as the favorite, in 2023 and 2025. This week it is No. 2. Photo: Lauren Palmer (@laurenpmedia)
The deepest dark horse: Summit Country Day, 2019. It was ranked No. 5 with one first-place vote and beat No. 1 Mount Gilead 98 to 112. It is the only champion in 56 races that came from outside the top three.
Two points: Lakota West, 2020. St. Xavier was a unanimous No. 1. Lakota West, No. 2 without a first-place vote, won 73 to 75.
The worst day for a No. 1: Cedarville, 2020. It had nine of 12 first-place votes and finished 7th with 216. No. 3 East Canton won with 126.
Unanimous and still beaten. It has happened three times. St. Xavier in 2020, the Loveland girls in 2021 and Mount Gilead in 2023 each had all 12 first-place votes, and each lost by eight points or fewer.
Last fall. The Watterson girls, No. 2, beat No. 1 Hathaway Brown by three points. In Division I, No. 3 Beavercreek won the school's first boys state title with 107, and No. 1 Mason finished 3rd.
What the numbers say
Where each state champion was ranked in the pre-state poll, 56 races from 2016 to 2025 (no 2018). Sources: OATCCC polls; OHSAA state meet results (2016-2024) and MileSplit (2025).
Watch No. 3, not No. 2. In 56 races, the state champion was ranked in the top three 55 times. When No. 1 lost, the No. 3 team won 10 of the 15 titles. No. 2 won four.
First-place votes matter more than points. A unanimous No. 1 has won 86 percent of the time. A No. 1 that split the room has done much worse.
| No. 1's first-place votes | No. 1 won | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| All 12 (unanimous) | 19 of 22 | 86% |
| 9 to 11 | 17 of 25 | 68% |
| 8 or fewer | 5 of 9 | 56% |
The size of the lead in poll points tells you almost nothing. No. 1 won 9 of 12 when it led No. 2 by fewer than 10 points, 23 of 32 when it led by 10 to 19, and 9 of 12 when it led by 20 or more.
The programs that own No. 1.
- Minster girls: No. 1 seven times since 2016, and seven state titles.
- Mason boys: No. 1 five straight years, 2021 through 2025. Three titles, a 2nd in 2023 and a 3rd in 2025.
- Mount Gilead boys: No. 1 in 2019, 2022, 2023 and 2024. Two titles and two 2nd-place finishes. They are No. 1 again this week, now in Division IV.
- Woodridge: No. 1 six times between its boys and girls teams, with four titles. The boys are a unanimous No. 1 again this week.
Minster's girls with the Division IV regional trophy at Troy on Oct. 31. As a Division III team, Minster was the pre-state No. 1 seven times from 2016 to 2024 and won state all seven. Photo: Lauren Palmer (@laurenpmedia)
The 2026 pre-state poll
The coaches released the final 2026 poll today. Only one No. 1 is unanimous, and two races are separated by four points or less at the top.
| Race | No. 1 (first-place votes) | No. 2 | No. 3 | Lead | Our projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 boys | Springboro 238 (10) | Mason 226 (2) | Mentor 214 | 12 | Springboro on regional times, Mason on season bests |
| D1 girls | Upper Arlington 238 (10) | Milford 230 (2) | Springboro 202 | 8 | Upper Arlington both ways |
| D2 boys | Lexington 275 (4) | Bowling Green 271 (3) | Big Walnut 255 (1) | 4 | Bowling Green both ways |
| D2 girls | Watterson 286 (11) | Aurora 276 (1) | Big Walnut 246 | 10 | Watterson both ways |
| D3 boys | Woodridge 288 (12) | Versailles 271 | Fairless 263 | 17 | Woodridge both ways |
| D3 girls | Huron 287 (11) | Oakwood 276 (1) | Minerva 260 | 11 | Oakwood on regional times, Huron on season bests |
| D4 boys | Mount Gilead 283 (7) | Russia 280 (5) | Tinora 258 | 3 | Tied on regional times, Mount Gilead on season bests |
| D4 girls | Liberty Center 280 (9) | Grandview Heights 272 (2) | Ottawa Hills 269 (1) | 8 | Liberty Center both ways |
Points: 12 voters. Division I polls rank 20 teams (240 points max); Divisions II to IV rank 24 (288 max). Our projections score the real state field on Oct. 31 regional times or on each runner's 2026 season best, as of Oct. 31 at 7:00 PM ET. Projected · not official.
Woodridge boys (Division III). The only unanimous No. 1 this year, and the defending champion. Unanimous No. 1s have won 19 of 22. All three that lost did it by eight points or fewer.
Watterson girls (Division II) and Huron girls (Division III). Eleven first-place votes each. No. 1s with 9 to 11 votes have won 17 of 25. Watterson won last year as No. 2. Huron sits one spot ahead of defending champion Oakwood, and our two projections split on that race.
Springboro boys and Upper Arlington girls (Division I). Ten votes each. Mason has two first-place votes in the boys poll and passes Springboro on season bests. That makes the No. 3 team worth watching too: Mentor, the sleeper from our Division I breakdown.
The Division I boys teams that qualified for state out of Troy. Springboro won the regional with 72 points; Mason was 2nd with 83. Photo: Lauren Palmer (@laurenpmedia)
Liberty Center girls (Division IV). Nine votes, eight points clear. Defending champion Ottawa Hills is No. 3, the spot that has produced 10 champions in this decade.
Mount Gilead boys (Division IV) and Lexington boys (Division II). These are the shakiest No. 1s on the board. Mount Gilead leads Russia by three points with seven votes. Lexington has four first-place votes, the fewest for any pre-state No. 1 in the nine seasons we checked. No. 1s with eight or fewer votes have won 5 of 9. Both earlier five-vote No. 1s, the 2017 Lexington boys and the 2024 Minster girls, won anyway.
Russia senior Keagan Baldridge was the team's fifth scorer at the Troy regional, 27th in 16:58.8, as Russia won the team race with 57 points. Russia is No. 2 this week, three poll points behind Mount Gilead. Photo: Lauren Palmer (@laurenpmedia)
What to watch Saturday at Fortress Obetz
The Division I boys start at the Troy regional on Oct. 31. Photo: Lauren Palmer (@laurenpmedia)
- A 2022 or a 2023? No. 1 went 6 for 6 in 2022 and 2024. It went 1 for 6 in 2023. The board this year has more close races than either.
- The two near ties. Mount Gilead leads Russia by three points and Lexington leads Bowling Green by four. When No. 1 led by fewer than 10 points, it won 9 of 12.
- The No. 3 teams. Mentor, Springboro girls, Big Walnut boys and girls, Fairless, Minerva, Tinora and Ottawa Hills. No. 3 has won 10 titles since 2016.
- Defending champions chasing from behind. Beavercreek boys (No. 4), Gahanna Lincoln girls (No. 4), Convoy Crestview boys (No. 4), Ottawa Hills girls (No. 3) and Oakwood girls (No. 2). No team ranked No. 4 has won a title in the nine seasons we checked.
- One streak on the line. The Division III girls No. 1 is 9 for 9 in the seasons we checked. Huron would make it 10.
Every race, 2016-2025
Every OATCCC pre-state No. 1 since 2016, where it finished and who won. First-place votes in parentheses. The archive has no 2018 polls.
| Year | Race | Pre-state No. 1 (first-place votes) | No. 1 finished | Champion (poll rank) | Champion score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | D1 boys | Mason (11) | 3rd, 153 | Beavercreek (No. 3) | 107 |
| 2025 | D1 girls | Gahanna Lincoln (12, unanimous) | 1st, 81 | No. 1 won | 81 |
| 2025 | D2 boys | Lexington (12, unanimous) | 1st, 110 | No. 1 won | 110 |
| 2025 | D2 girls | Hathaway Brown (8) | 2nd, 161 | Watterson (No. 2) | 158 |
| 2025 | D3 boys | Woodridge (8) | 1st, 65 | No. 1 won | 65 |
| 2025 | D3 girls | Oakwood (12, unanimous) | 1st, 71 | No. 1 won | 71 |
| 2025 | D4 boys | Convoy Crestview (9) | 1st, 86 | No. 1 won | 86 |
| 2025 | D4 girls | Ottawa Hills (12, unanimous) | 1st, 114 | No. 1 won | 114 |
| 2024 | D1 boys | Mason (9) | 1st, 111 | No. 1 won | 111 |
| 2024 | D1 girls | Lancaster (11) | 1st, 114 | No. 1 won | 114 |
| 2024 | D2 boys | Fairfield Union (12, unanimous) | 1st, 88 | No. 1 won | 88 |
| 2024 | D2 girls | Minerva (8) | 1st, 100 | No. 1 won | 100 |
| 2024 | D3 boys | Mount Gilead (11) | 1st, 109 | No. 1 won | 109 |
| 2024 | D3 girls | Minster (5) | 1st, 134 | No. 1 won | 134 |
| 2023 | D1 boys | Mason (10) | 2nd, 148 | Massillon Jackson (No. 3) | 86 |
| 2023 | D1 girls | Hilliard Davidson (10) | 2nd, 124 | Perrysburg (No. 3) | 102 |
| 2023 | D2 boys | Woodridge (9) | 2nd, 123 | Marlington (No. 3) | 108 |
| 2023 | D2 girls | Woodridge (7) | 2nd, 157 | Minerva (No. 3) | 144 |
| 2023 | D3 boys | Mount Gilead (12, unanimous) | 2nd, 128 | Columbus Grove (No. 3) | 122 |
| 2023 | D3 girls | Minster (12, unanimous) | 1st, 62 | No. 1 won | 62 |
| 2022 | D1 boys | Mason (12, unanimous) | 1st, 128 | No. 1 won | 128 |
| 2022 | D1 girls | Mason (8) | 1st, 75 | No. 1 won | 75 |
| 2022 | D2 boys | Marlington (12, unanimous) | 1st, 56 | No. 1 won | 56 |
| 2022 | D2 girls | Granville (12, unanimous) | 1st, 130 | No. 1 won | 130 |
| 2022 | D3 boys | Mount Gilead (11) | 1st, 82 | No. 1 won | 82 |
| 2022 | D3 girls | Minster (12, unanimous) | 1st, 63 | No. 1 won | 63 |
| 2021 | D1 boys | Mason (11) | 1st, 106 | No. 1 won | 106 |
| 2021 | D1 girls | Loveland (12, unanimous) | 2nd, 109 | Perrysburg (No. 3) | 101 |
| 2021 | D2 boys | Marlington (12, unanimous) | 1st, 77 | No. 1 won | 77 |
| 2021 | D2 girls | Minerva (9) | 1st, 136 | No. 1 won | 136 |
| 2021 | D3 boys | East Canton (11) | 1st, 93 | No. 1 won | 93 |
| 2021 | D3 girls | Minster (12, unanimous) | 1st, 66 | No. 1 won | 66 |
| 2020 | D1 boys | St. Xavier (12, unanimous) | 2nd, 75 | Lakota West (No. 2) | 73 |
| 2020 | D1 girls | Hilliard Davidson (10) | 2nd, 138 | Centerville (No. 2) | 128 |
| 2020 | D2 boys | Unioto (10) | 3rd, 149 | Woodridge (No. 3) | 113 |
| 2020 | D2 girls | Lexington (12, unanimous) | 1st, 113 | No. 1 won | 113 |
| 2020 | D3 boys | Cedarville (9) | 7th, 216 | East Canton (No. 3) | 126 |
| 2020 | D3 girls | West Liberty-Salem (11) | 1st, 55 | No. 1 won | 55 |
| 2019 | D1 boys | St. Xavier (12, unanimous) | 1st, 92 | No. 1 won | 92 |
| 2019 | D1 girls | Beavercreek (12, unanimous) | 1st, 51 | No. 1 won | 51 |
| 2019 | D2 boys | Woodridge (12, unanimous) | 1st, 37 | No. 1 won | 37 |
| 2019 | D2 girls | Lexington (12, unanimous) | 1st, 83 | No. 1 won | 83 |
| 2019 | D3 boys | Mount Gilead (7) | 2nd, 112 | Summit Country Day (No. 5) | 98 |
| 2019 | D3 girls | Minster (12, unanimous) | 1st, 79 | No. 1 won | 79 |
| 2017 | D1 boys | Hudson (12, unanimous) | 1st, 73 | No. 1 won | 73 |
| 2017 | D1 girls | Centerville (9) | 1st, 122 | No. 1 won | 122 |
| 2017 | D2 boys | Lexington (5) | 1st, 97 | No. 1 won | 97 |
| 2017 | D2 girls | Hawken (6) | 5th, 197 | Lexington (No. 2) | 137 |
| 2017 | D3 boys | East Canton (11) | 1st, 119 | No. 1 won | 119 |
| 2017 | D3 girls | Minster (10) | 1st, 34 | No. 1 won | 34 |
| 2016 | D1 boys | Solon (10) | 1st, 79 | No. 1 won | 79 |
| 2016 | D1 girls | Centerville (10) | 1st, 120 | No. 1 won | 120 |
| 2016 | D2 boys | Woodridge (10) | 1st, 72 | No. 1 won | 72 |
| 2016 | D2 girls | Woodridge (11) | 1st, 88 | No. 1 won | 88 |
| 2016 | D3 boys | Maplewood (10) | 3rd, 125 | Fort Loramie (No. 3) | 97 |
| 2016 | D3 girls | Minster (11) | 1st, 38 | No. 1 won | 38 |
How we did this
- The poll. For each season we used the last OATCCC poll released before the state meet. That is the 11-3-16 "Pre-State Meet" poll in 2016, the 11-1-17 pre-state poll in 2017, the "Pre-State" PDFs for 2019 to 2021 and the "Pre-State Poll" tab of the Google Sheets for 2022 to 2026. The archive has no 2018 polls.
- The 2025 dates. The 2025 Pre-State tabs carry date labels of 10/27/25 (girls) and 10/20/25 (boys). Their rankings differ from the Pre-Regional tabs, so we treated them as the pre-state poll.
- The result. A "win" means the No. 1 team won the state team title. Finishes and team scores come from the official state meet results for 2016 to 2024 and MileSplit's posted results for 2025.
- Scores. In two places OHSAA's all-time champions list is a point or two off the meet results file (2024 Division I boys runner-up St. Xavier, 178 vs. 180; 2024 Division III girls champion Minster, 135 vs. 134). We used the results files.
- Projections. Podium Watch projections score the actual state field with each runner's Oct. 31 regional time or 2026 season best, as of Oct. 31 at 7:00 PM ET. Projected · not official.
Sources
- OATCCC Cross Country Coaches Poll archive (2016-2026 polls, including the Nov. 5, 2026 pre-state poll)
- OHSAA all-time state team champions
- OHSAA state meet results: 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024
- 2025 state meet results on MileSplit: Division I, Division II boys, Division II girls, Division III boys, Division III girls, Division IV boys, Division IV girls
- Podium Watch state breakdowns for Division I, II, III and IV
